The WEATHER SHELTER

 

Published monthly by the North Jersey Weather Observers

Volume XX               Number 10             October 2000

 

Web Address: http://njwo.tripod.com

 

 


Important Reminders:


This month's meeting is Wednesday October 25th at 7:30 pm.  Everyone is welcome. Club members will meet at the Bergen County Museum of Art and Sciences


 Please remember to send all correspondence to be printed in "The Weather Shelter" in electronic format.

 


 


This month's speaker will be Nick Stefano, charter club member and standardization Chairman from Wantage, New Jersey.  Mr. Stefano will display and speak on wireless weather stations.  Mr. Stefano is instrumental in the present and future development of the statewide HomeNet Weather Network, the New York City School Weather Network as well as the Sussex County Weather Network. Be there!

                                                                                                                 

 

Year 2000 Schedule:

 

Unless otherwise notified - Last Wednesday of every month.  Guests are welcome.  Please mark these dates on your weather calendar and see if you can make it.


 

 


Did you know?  Alonzo DePue of Layton, Sussex County who lived on Old Mine Road recorded daily weather observations as a coop station 46 consecutive years up to his death without missing a day!

 

A Word from the Editor

 

 

As I take on this challenge and task as your new electronic Editor, I am looking forward with great enthusiasm to producing the Weather Shelter on a monthly basis.  Since the club's inception, we have never produced and transmitted this newsletter using any other method then the standard postal service.

 

This is a tremendous opportunity for the club, as this will allow us to reach many, many more people of all backgrounds who are interested in the weather.  In addition, postage will never be a problem since we do not have to worry about the weight of the document to be sent.  The computer age is here! Remember, this newsletter will be posted on the club's web site at:

njwo.tripod.com  Download a copy for a friend.

 

Our own public relations Chairman Bob Ziff and his wife Bonnie have volunteered their time and effort in producing the hard copy of the Shelter to those who still wish to receive a hard copy and do not have access to the Internet.  Thanks to the Ziff's!

 

Please e-mail me any articles, stories and weather data you would like published.  Deadline is 10 days prior to the club's next meeting.  My e-mail address is:  nick@sussexcountyinfo.com

 

Nick Stefano

Electronic Editor

 

 


Officers and Committee Chairs

 

President:                           To be confirmed

Vice President:                   Art Petridis               908-352-1876

Secretary:                            Dennis O'keefe         914-255-7374

Treasurer:                           Albert Manganelli    973-983-0063     adman@bellatlantic.net

Sergeant at Arms:              Gregory Petridis       908-352-1876

Standards:                           Nick Stefano            973-702-9090     nick@sussexcountyinfo.com

Public Relations:                Bob Ziff                    201-236-1021 

Scholarship:                        Russ Stammer          201-337-8501      

Hotline:                               Gregory Petridis       973-628-6869

NJWO Web Master:          Dave Dabour            908-995-7114      dabour@att.com     

NJWO Homepage:             http://njwo.tripod.com

Editor:                                 Robert Ziff/ Bonnie Ziff

Electronic Editor:               Nick Stefano

 

Send articles to: Electronically  nick@sussexcountyinfo.com

Send Club dues to:  Albert Manganelli / Treasurer

                                   11 Darlington Drive

                                   Rockaway Township, NJ  07866

 

Regular …….$25.00/year       Student:…….$15.00/ year

 

NORTH JERSEY WEATHER OBSERVERS - MEETING –

Wednesday, September 27, 2000

 

     by Dennis O'Keefe, Secretary

 

 

At meeting time it was clear and 65 degrees. The meeting was called to order at 7:51 p.m. by Vice President Art Petridis. President Keith Galley has moved to Elmira, New York, to work as a meteorologist at a television station there. New member Drew Pizzulo was introduced and the rest of the 16 members present introduced themselves.

 

Chris Standal was appointed to serve as the nominating committee to seek officers for next year. Elections will be held during the November meeting.  Members willing to serve should contact Chris. Albert Manganelli has previously indicated that he will not be available for another term as treasurer.

 

Early notice was mentioned about the Super Science Saturday to be held at a nearby school on March 3, 2001.

 

Interim editor Jason Hayday had completed his time in that post and was warmly thanked for getting us through a year of publications and did so on short notice. Nick Stefano will take on the job of compiling an electronic version of a monthly newsletter and distributing it on e-mail. All 17 members at the meeting had access to e-mail and it was thought that this would speed delivery and cut expenses. Bob Ziff will take the e-mail version and print paper copies for members who don't have e-mail and have a few extra available to show to prospective members. It may be possible to cut dues next year for those who don't require the paper, postage, and envelopes of a printed copy. The electronic version of the newsletter will also be available at the club's web site maintained by Dave Dabour.

 

http://njwo.tripod.com

 

The hotline was promoted as a source of current observations that Bob Ziff can use in his press contacts. Bob sent word that our data was used in two newspapers during the month.

 

The minutes of the prior meeting were approved as printed in The Weather Shelter.  Treasurer Manganelli was reported to be on vacation, and there was no report from him.

 

Dave Dabour announced that the club's printer, monitor, and scanner were successfully retrieved from prior editor Ken Davis by the efforts of Bob Ziff with the assistance of Nick Stefano.

 

Following the refreshment break, our speaker, Dave Robinson, long-time NJWO member and New Jersey State Climatologist, presented a program on "Is New Jersey's Climate Changing." He also talked about the impact of storm "Floyd" and fielded questions from the floor. Thanks to Dave for another enjoyable and

informative presentation.

 

As part of his program, Dave recommended the following two books, which he is using in his classes:

 

The Change in the Weather: People, Weather, and the Science of Climate by William K. Stevens

 

Is the Temperature Rising? The Uncertain Science of Global Warming by S. George Philander

 

The next meeting will be Wednesday, October 25.



 


 


First Snow of season observed

The first snow fall of the season was observed.  On October 9th and 10th, occasional snow showers brushed areas of Sussex County.  Higher elevations of Wantage, High Point, Highland Lakes and Mountain Creek all spotted the glorious white stuff.  Hope this a harbinger of things to come!

 

Footnote: This was not the earliest that snow has fallen in New Jersey.  Some early measurable amounts occurred on October 3-4, 1987, High Point received 1" of snow.  On October 10, 1979 High Point received 5" of snow! Photo below is NOT from recent snow shower.


 

 


* Please note that the mention of any kind of weather record in this publication is based solely from the period that official weather records commenced.  Obviously, no one knows what occurred hundreds or thousands of years ago.

 

 

NJ WxNet

 

One of the missions of the Office of the New Jersey Climatologist (ONJSC) at Rutgers University is to enhance the state weather and climate data archives and make them available for the citizens of New Jersey.

 

The NJ Weather and Climate Network is an online collection of weather and climate data designed for professionals in research, forecasting, public safety, pest management, agriculture, education, and the general public.  The NJ WxNet (wx = weather) collects real-time weather data from several independent networks. These observations are then archived and disseminated via the World Wide Web, through the ONJSC.

 

Roughly $100,000 per year is required by the ONJSC to fully access and maintain the entire NJ WxNet.  That's only about ONE PENNY per New Jersey citizen!  Collected funds would go towards hourly modem access, network maintenance, database and web site management, and equipment replacement or repair.

 

Initial network activities have focused on integrating observations from the ONJSC's NJ HomeNet, the South Jersey Resource and Conservation Development Council's RISE Network and the National Weather Service's Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) network.  The data is augmented by offshore information from the National Data Buoy Center and the Sussex County Weather Network. One of our goals is to acquire data from other stations run by the NJ Department of Transportation, the NJ Turnpike Authority, utility companies, and others.

 

An increased number of NJ WxNet stations means more "eyes and ears" working to monitor NJ weather and climate conditions.  This can potentially provide far-reaching benefits to various sectors of the NJ community. These benefits will only increase as the New Jersey Weather and Climate Network expands.

 

Web address:   http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet

 

 

 

 


Ice Skating and swimming in the same day?

 

 

Back on May 21, 1992 the low temperature in Belle Mead, NJ (as recorded by our own State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson) was 29° with heavy frost.  The high that afternoon reached 86°!

 

That is a diurnal range of 57 degrees!

 

 

 

 

 

Valley Fog

 

Below are two pictures taken from my remote weather cam on top of Mountain Creek Ski Resort.  Notice the valley fog and the time listed.  Then, notice the same picture and the time when the sun finally burned off the fog. Valley elevation is at 400 ft., camera at 1, 375 ft.


 


 

 


For more weather cams and weather data from Sussex County and the entire area, please visit:  www.sussexcountyinfo.com and http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim

 

 

 

The August 12th Flood

 

On August 12, 2000 a remarkable weather event occurred in Northern New Jersey.  A low-pressure system off of the New Jersey coast in conjunction with an upper air low to our west caused this wet weather system to stall.  And stall it did.

 

Imbedded in this storm were heavy isolated areas of rain.  If your were under the heavy precipitation when the system slowed down and stalled, you got deluged for hours!

 

I remember being down the shore at the time when this occurrence happened and my cell phone kept ringing every 5 minutes from different sources.  I quickly turned on the Weather Channel and could not believe my eyes.  The radar depicted an incredible cell over the southern part of  Sussex and Northwestern Morris County.  When I saw the report of over 14" of rainfall at Sparta Mountain, I went into my usual "we got to get home to measure this" mode.  Note: This mode usually occurs when it starts to snow in the winter. I knew this was significant.

 

Now, luckily I do have a remote weather station on top of Sparta Mountain.  Unfortunately, it was struck by lightning after recording close to 9" of rain.  The 14+ inches came from another source but was confirmed by Doppler radar estimates. (See enclosed maps).

 


Parts of Sparta were a complete wash out with mud slides (see photo), dams busted and houses flooded. The other significant part is that a few miles away in Newton, only a little over 2" occurred.  It was devastating!

 

 

 

 

 


Memoriam:  The Club is saddened to hear about the untimely death of Mrs. Audrey Pardridge.  She was the mother of long time member and past club president Stephen Pardridge.  She will be missed.  Safe in the arms of the LORD!

 

 

State Record Possible?

 

Because of the significance of this event, I was asked by Dr. Dave Robinson and the National Weather Service to get as much rainfall amounts as possible from this area.

 


Putting out feelers I came across a gentlemen in Jefferson Township, just over the border into Morris County near Lake Hopatcong who reported to me 18.65".  You read it right, 18.65" of rainfall in one day!  I had to visit.

 

 

 

 


Here is a map of the actual location of this incredible amount of water. The unofficial observer lives at 140 Espanong Road.

 

Below are the actual precipitation observations as recorded by John Pierson from Jefferson Township. Note that after 9:25 am, he emptied his rain gauge after every recorded observation.

 

 


The most rainfall ever recorded in one month in New Jersey since records commenced is 25.98". This was established in the city of Paterson during the month of September 1882.

 

 

 

Precipitation Breakdown

 

 

August 12, 2000

 

9:00am - 9:20 am:       1.20"

9:20 - 9:25 am:            1.80"   (that is 1.80" in 5 minutes!)

9:25 - 10:00 am:          2.50"

10:00 am - 10:20 am:  0.80"

10:20 - 10:50 am:        3.00"

10:50 - 12:25 pm:        3.75"

12:25 - 12:40 pm:        1.00"

12:40 - 1:55 pm:          1.60"

1:55 - 7:00 pm:            2.50"

7:45 pm the rain ended

 

                       Total:   18.65" in one day!

 

When I visited with Mr. Pierson he showed me his rain gauge.  It was a V shaped non-recording gauge in an open area of his yard.  The opening on top is about 1.5".  It can hold up to 5.5" of rain before spilling over.

 

*This amount is significant because it would set a new state record for the most rainfall ever to fall in a 24-hour period.  The old record was 14.81" at Tuckerton.

 

Dr. Robinson is trying to coordinate all the totals and see if this could possibly be recognized as an "official" state record despite coming from a non-coop station.  It has vote.

 


 

 

 


* In the late David Ludlum's New Jersey Weather Book, there is mention of a rain event that produced 22.40" in a 24 hour period in Ewan (Gloucester County) on September 1, 1940. Type of gauge is listed as unknown.

 

Club Member's Weather Reports

 

 

WESTWOOD, NJ  SEPT. 2000 SUMMARY

From Tom Shaw

 

Avg  maximum     72

Avg  minimum      55

Mean                   63

High Temp           84(9/1)

Low  Temp           36(9/29)

 Precip                  3.64"               YTD   33.55

10 days rain  with      4 thunder storm days

Max precip   1.34"  (9/19)

Max winds 10 mph 9/12-17,21

 

Remarks

Four  am fogs.  No frosts. Good yield from vegetable garden!!

 

 

BERGENFIELD, NJ SEPT 2000 SUMMARY

From Rudy Nickman

 

 Average Maximum     72.6

Average minimum      59.4

Mean                        66     (-2.2)

 High                          84  (2,3,9)

Low                           43(29)

 Precipitation:     5.82"  (+1.93")

 

Remarks:   Cooler and wetter than normal.

 

Dear Weather Enthusiasts,

 

The weather here in the New York City region was cooler and wetter than

normal during the month of September.

                   Summary for New York City ( Central Park )

 

     FAHRENHEIT / INCHES       CENTIGRADE / MM

TEMPERATURE

 

Avg Max 72.6                   22.6

        Min 59.4                   15.2

        Avg 66.0 ( -2.2F )         18.9 ( -1.2C )

Max     84 ( 2,3,9th )         28.9

Min     43 ( 29th )             6.1

PRECIPITATION

Total       5.82 ( +1.93" )    147.8 ( +48.3mm )              

 

MONTHLY SUMMARY  - SEPTEMBER, 2000

KING OF PRUSSIA, PA. 

 

 

            September in King of Prussia was the coolest on record (64.8 degrees) and the 3rd wettest (7.34”). No 90+ degree temperatures were recorded, leaving 13 total for the entire spring & summer season. Three occurred in May, seven in June, one in July and two in August. Tropical storm/ hurricane activity picked up following a lull at the beginning of the month. Named storms included Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce & Keith. Only Gordon & Helene affected the U.S. mainland.

            Hot and oppressively humid conditions with varying cloudcover & sunshine prevailed from the 1st-4th. High temperatures maxed in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the 70s. Mid afternoon & evening showers & heavy thunderstorms affected parts of Philadelphia and New Jersey on each day from the 2nd-4th, dumping up to several inches of rain on some locations. Almost all of the activity stayed ESE of the King of Prussia area. In northeast Philadelphia on the 3rd, 3.86” was reported by a local TV news station while 0.05” was measure here. Highs of 87 degrees on the 2nd & 4th tied the record for both dates.

            Following a dry cold front passage, high pressure brought autumn-like weather to the area from the 5th-8th. Daytime temperatures held in the 70s with lows in the 40s & 50s. King of Prussia tied its record low of 46 degrees on the 6th then set a similar new record low of 46 on the 7th.  A significant warm-up occurred from the 9th-12th with a return to oppressive heat & humidity.

            A frontal passage on the 13th triggered a heavy, pre-dawn thunderstorm containing vivid flashes of lightning & loud thunder. Heavy rain totaling 1.06” caused minor flooding in the area. During the day, clouds decreased and humidity lowered significantly. A series of heavy thunderstorms with vivid lightning accompanied the arrival of a much stronger cold front the night of the 14th/15th, producing almost 1.50” of rainfall. Generous sunshine, significantly cooler air, gusty WNW winds & low humidity followed in its wake through the 17th. Wind gusts on the 15th peaked at 20-30mph. Sunshine faded behind increasing high cloudiness on the 18th.

            On the 19th into the early morning of the 20th, the remnants of hurricane Gordon produced 2.57” of rain accompanied by variable, gusty E-NW winds. Minor street flooding was encountered. During the day on the 20th, mostly clear skies and breezy conditions prevailed with a record setting afternoon high of 85 degrees in King of Prussia. Gusty west winds (20-30mph) developed late in the afternoon and continued on the 21st as a strong cold front advanced on and moved through the region. Sprinkles accompanied its passage on the morning of the 21st.

            The 23rd & 24th yielded mostly cloudy sky conditions and cool temperatures with occasional light rain & drizzle as an incoming frontal system approached from the NW and the remnants of tropical storm Helene moved NNE from the southeast. Dense fog developed during the evening and night. Most of the moisture associated with the front stayed far to the north of the region while rainfall from Helene shifted eastward out sea.

            On the 25th & 26th, strong low pressure centered over Tennessee redeveloped along the Virginia coast, causing steady rainfall, moderate-heavy from mid afternoon through the overnight hours. Intermittent rain, briefly moderate-heavy, continued until early afternoon on the 26th as an upper level disturbance moved eastward from Ohio. Precipitation exceeded two inches, accompanied by variable NNE winds and cool temperatures. Were this same storm to have occurred during the winter months and it were cold enough, it would have been quite a snowstorm.

            Stellar early autumn weather prevailed from the 27th-30th with abundant sunshine in sapphire blue skies, low humidity, high temperatures ranging from 64 to 70 and moderate west-north breezes. Three new record lows were recorded at my station: 43 on the 27th(tie), 37 on the 29th and 38 on the 30th(tie).

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Observer: Michael Cerio

                                                                                                Station: King of Prussia, Pa.

                                                                                                County: Montgomery

                                                                                                Elevation: 185ft.

Elizabeth (September 2000)- Greg Petridis

 

       September started off warm, with the first four days featuring highs in the mid 80s and lows only in the mid to upper 60s, with fairly high levels of humidity.  As I mentioned high levels of humidity, it rained on each of those days.  Two moisture-starved thunderstorms yielded 0.03" on the first, 0.15" fell on the second, a trace on the third, and 0.64" on the fourth, with two more thunderstorms accompanying a frontal passage. The fifth through eighth saw a cool-down, with highs in the low or mid 70s, and lows near or just above 50 degrees.  It was dry through this period.

 

       The ninth through fourteenth saw more warm weather, with highs around 80 and lows in the lower 60s.  A thunderstorm gave us 0.61" of rain with a weak cold frontal passage on the thirteenth.

 

        The fifteenth through nineteenth were cooler, with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the mid or upper 50s.  0.70" of rain fell with a strong thunderstorm which brought a 31 MPH wind gust on the fifteenth, and 0.88" of rain fell on the nineteenth from a moisture-laden warm front and the remnants of hurricane Gordon.  A thunderstorm was also observed, as was a cool eye center.

 

        The twentieth was one lone warm day.  Highs were in the low to mid 80s region-wide and lows were near 60.   0.27" of rain fell here from the leftovers of Gordon.

 

        The month closed out progressively cooler, as high temperatures gradually cooled off to the low to mid 60s and lows cooled off to the lower 40s.  A slow moving cutoff system gave us 0.06" of rain on the 23rd, a trace on the 24th, 0.03" on the 25th, and 0.43" on the 26th.

 

         I will close this column with my "official" Winter forecast.  I am going to make the call for a snowy and particularly cold winter.  I am forced to make this call for several reasons, but these are the three main reasons:

 1) The current pattern shows no signs of change

 2) There is a normal ENSO year

 3) We're "due"

 1) If this weather pattern continues, we're bound to get a winter of record proportions.  Although it may change in the West, little change seems likely in the East.

 2) With a lack of any major El Nino or La Nina, smaller systems can have a bigger influence on local weather.  This scenario favors more snow. 3) Let's face it.  After three non-Winters , we're simply bound to get a snowy winter through the law of averages.

 

GREG

_____________________

 

Want to access Dave Robinson’s monthly climate maps online in COLOR?  Simply press this link and select the month and data you want to see:

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/stations/index.html
THE TALE OF THE GAUGE: NJ PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS

 

David A. Robinson

NJ State Climatologist, Center for Environmental Prediction

Professor, Department of Geography

Rutgers University

 

 

As we move into the last months of 2000 one can say that --thus far at least-- our water woes have been few this year, especially when compared to 1999.  Rivers are flowing close to normal, ground water is sufficient and reservoir levels are well above seasonal norms.  Flash flooding has been of a local concern several times in recent months, but wide-spread flooding has been absent.  Finally, precipitation has been timely and of sufficient quantity to avoid drought.

 

This is quite a contrast from 1999, which had severe summer drought -- only 1963 had a drier April to July -- and major flooding associated with Hurricane Floyd in September --12 of New Jersey’s 21 counties had at least one station observe more than 8.00” of rain on the 16th, with 7 of those counties having one or more stations recording greater than 10.00” --.

 

Climatologically, a significant characteristic of the annual precipitation regime in New Jersey is its rather equitable distribution.  Statewide monthly precipitation (based on an average of approximately 35 precipitation gauges) ranges from 3.05” in February to 4.43” in July.  Of course from year to year this often varies greatly; witness 1999 with as little as 1.42” in July and a whopping 9.58” in September.  Thus far, 2000 has bordered on the unusual, as the driest month, 2.16” in February, and the wettest, July with 6.64”, were only about an inch from average.  This equitable distribution, along with a cooler than normal summer, was ideal hydrologically and, for the most part, agriculturally.

 

With precipitation above average from this past June to August, concerns of New Jersey sliding into a long-term drought pattern have abated.  Earlier, despite annual precipitation being close to average in 1998 and 1999, statewide totals were below average in 17 of the 23 months between July 1998 and May 2000  --  with negative departures exceeding 1.5” in 7 months--.  A severe drought (particularly with respect to reservoir levels) was avoided over this period, primarily due to a wet January 1999 (3.96” above average) and Floyd (September 1999 precipitation was 5.82” above average).

 

No one, not even the long range forecasting team at the National Weather Service, can tell us what this fall and winter’s weather will drop in the gauge.  However with anything close to average precipitation, New Jersey is sure to make it to next spring with surface and ground water supplies in great shape.

 

If you wish to keep track of how the weather unfolds in upcoming months, you are invited to visit the State Climate web site (http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim).  For precipitation totals you can surf through this site to view state long term averages and totals for individual months and years (http://climate.rutgers.edu/data/index.html) , county estimates for a variety of intervals (http://marfchp1.met.psu.edu/Maps) , long term monthly averages for selected stations (http://climate.rutgers.edu/norms/precip.html), totals for weekly and longer intervals at selected stations (http://climate.rutgers.edu/njclimatewatch.html), and station observations as frequently as every hour (http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet).

 

 

Remember to send those reports in electronic form to:  nick@sussexcountyinfo.com