The WEATHER SHELTER

 

Published monthly by the North Jersey Weather Observers

Volume XX1               Number 1             January 2001

 

Web Address: http://www.njwo.org

 

 



Important Reminders:

 


This month's meeting is Wednesday January 24th at 7:30 pm.  Everyone is welcome. Club members will meet at the Bergen County Museum of Art and Sciences

 

Please remember to send all correspondence to be printed in "The Weather Shelter" in electronic format to: nick@sussexcountyinfo.com

 

This month's guest speaker is our own Scott Gordon.  Scott lives in Red Bank, New Jersey and has an incredible way of analyzing long-range weather computer models.  He also writes a Weather Watch column on the Sussex County Weather Network web site:  www.sussexcountyinfo.com. You will enjoy his presentation on the incredible Nor'easter that pummeled New Jersey with as much as 30" of snow! Be there!  You won't be disappointed.

                                                                                                                 

 


Year 2001 Schedule:

 

North Jersey Weather Observers Meeting Schedule

2001

All are last Wednesday at 7:30p.m. unless noted

 

January 24     Scott Gordon                               July 25

February 21   Roger Brickner                           August 29

March 21                                                          September 26

April 18        Andy Horvitz, NWS Co-op       October 31

May 30                                                             November 28

June 20                                                             December 26 - Holiday Party

 

Unless otherwise notified - Last Wednesday of every month.  Guests are welcome.  Please mark these dates on your weather calendar and see if you can make it.

 


Did you know?   90% of all precipitation even in summer starts out in the frozen form?  Look at Mt. Everest at about the same latitude as New Orleans, Louisiana.  Yet, even in summer, the upper parts of the mountain are always snow and ice covered.

 

 

The WEATHER SHELTER

 

 

A Word from the Editor

 

The electronic Shelter is working great!  Keep those articles coming! We encourage everyone to submit articles; facts or any weather related material. Since the club's inception, we have never produced and transmitted this newsletter using any other method then the standard postal service.

 

This is a tremendous opportunity for the club, as this will allow us to reach many, many more people of all backgrounds who are interested in the weather.  In addition, postage will never be a problem since we do not have to worry about the weight of the document to be sent.  The computer age is here! Remember, this newsletter will be posted on the club's web site at:

www.njwo.org   Download a copy for a friend.

 

Our own public relations Chairman Bob Ziff and his wife Bonnie have volunteered their time and effort in producing the hard copy of the Shelter to those who still wish to receive a hard copy and do not have access to the Internet.  Thanks to the Ziff's.  The first production looked fantastic!

 

Please e-mail any articles, stories and weather data you would like published.  Deadline is 10 days prior to the club's next meeting.  My e-mail address is: nick@sussexcountyinfo.com

 

Nick Stefano

Electronic Editor

 

 


Officers and Committee Chairs

 

President:                           Robert Draper           201-394-8525

Vice President:                   Nick Stefano             973-702-9090     nick@sussexcountyinfo.com

Secretary:                            Dennis O'keefe         845-255-7374     okeefed@newpaltz.edu  

Treasurer:                          Chris Standal             973-628-1929     chris_Standal@ziffdavis.com

Sergeant at Arms:              Gregory Petridis       908-352-1876

Standards:                           Nick Stefano            973-702-9090     nick@sussexcountyinfo.com

Public Relations:                Bob Ziff                    201-236-1021 

Scholarship:                        Russ Stammer          201-337-8501      

Hotline:                               Gregory Petridis       973-628-6869

NJWO Web Master:          Dave Dabour            908-995-7114      dabour@att.net       

NJWO Homepage:             http://www.njwo.org

Editor:                                 Robert Ziff/ Bonnie Ziff

Electronic Editor:               Nick Stefano  nick@sussexcountyinfo.com

Send articles to:                 Electronically  nick@sussexcountyinfo.com

Send Club dues to:            Albert Manganelli / Treasurer

                                             11 Darlington Drive

                                             Rockaway Township, NJ  07866

Regular …….$25.00/year       Student:…….$15.00/ year

The WEATHER SHELTER

 

 

NJWO Friends,

 

We now have an additional, easier to remember web address for the NJWO web site:

 

http://www.njwo.org

 

The .org extension was chosen as this is traditionally used for non-profit organizations as NJWO is considered one.

 

This is NOT a new web site, just another, easier web address to remember and to advertise.  The other addresses will continue to work as well.  They are:

 

http://njwo.tripod.com

http://members.tripod.com/njwo

 

If the new web address does not work immediately for you where you are, give it another day to propagate throughout the Internet.  If it still does not work then, please email me back to let me know.

 

Dave

H David Dabour

NJWO Webmaster

 

Hello to all. Here are all the NJWO e-mail addresses that I have on my list. 

-- Dennis.

 

adman@bellatlantic.net   Albert Manganelli                    stormwarning1@juno.com     Gregory Petridis

Chris_Standal@ziffdavis.com     Chris Standal               rncakeil@aol.com     Dick Keil

dabour@att.net     Dave Dabour                                      KeithGalley@scientist.com     Keith Galley

mckims@mail.lsc.vsc.edu     Scott McKim                     BBZ@worldnet.att.net    Bob Ziff

JHayday1@yahoo.com    Jason Hayday                          weatheramerica@msn.com     Larry Cosgrove

jadle@earthlink.net     Joe Adams                                    nick@sussexcountyinfo.com    Nick Stefano

okeefed@newpaltz.edu     Dennis O'Keefe                      drobins@rci.rutgers.edu   Dave Robinson

Weather147@aol.com     Steven Nascimento                  alomar8@aol.com     Drew Pizzulo

Petridis@juno.com    Art Petridis

 

 


Temperature Conversion Formulas

F = 1.8C + 32     C = 5/9 (F-32)

The WEATHER SHELTER

 

NORTH JERSEY WEATHER OBSERVERS

  MEETING - Wednesday, December 27, 2000 -

     by Dennis O'Keefe, Secretary

 

 

At arrival time it was partly cloudy and 30 degrees. The meeting was called to order at 7:27 p.m. by vice president Art Petridis. Art announced that he had word from Bob Ziff that our data was used four times in the Bergen Record.

 

A motion was passed to keep the dues the same for calendar year 2001. For convenience and promptness, send them directly to incoming treasurer Chris Standal's home address.

 

Art heard from John Bowen, who sends his greetings.

 

There was much discussion on the predicted snowstorm for Saturday. Greg Petridis will update the hotline every three hours on Saturday. Self-introductions included a guess at the snow total that will be measured in Elizabeth with a prize to the closest. There were 25 members and guests present.

 

Treasurer Albert Manganelli had written reports of our last three years of financial activity available.

 

To finish the business meeting the outgoing, incoming, and continuing officers were presented and posed for photographs. Following was the holiday party with plenty of food delivered by the Petridis family.

 

Remember that five meetings during 2001 are a week earlier than the traditional final Wednesday of the month. Check the schedule printed in The Weather Shelter or contact the Secretary.

 

 

 

 


Converting Millibars to Inches of Mercury

 

To convert Millibars to Inches of Mercury (Hg) simply multiply the Millibars by 0.02953

Example: 990 Millibars   = 29.23" of Hg

The WEATHER SHELTER

 

Importance of Accurate Snow Measurements

 

Below is a sequence of e-mails from a dissatisfied weather observer with respect to a snowfall posted on my web site from his town. These are some fundamentals we all need to watch out for and not forget because of our enthusiasm. The name has been removed.

 

 

 

E-mail

MY NAME IS -------------AND I HAVE BEEN A WEATHER FREAK FOR MANY YEARS.

I CAN HONESTLY SAY THAT THERE IS MORE THAN 15 INCHES IN THE TOWN OF

------------.   I LIVE BY --------------- COUNTRY CLUB AND TOOK SEVERAL MEASUREMENTS IN MY BACK YARD.

 

THE AVERAGE SNOW DEPTH CAME TO JUST OVER 21 INCHES.  IF YOU GET A CHANCE COULD YOU PLEASE UPDATE THIS ON YOUR WEBSITE. YOU SHOW ONLY 15 INCHES.

THANKS A LOT!!!

-------------------

My Reply

Hi -----,

Did you deduct the snow on the ground first from the total?  Remember, there was a snow cover of about 5" +/-

Nick

 

His Reply

 

YOU'RE RIGHT!!  I FORGOT TO DO THAT! EITHER WAY I'M LOVING IT!!!KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK AND KEEP THOSE STORMS COMING! ONCE A WEEK WOULD BE NICE.  HAPPY NEW YEAR!

 

 

 


Doesn't get any more accurate then this!

 

Thanks Nick for your quick answers to my questions. I live in Belleville, (directly north of Newark), in Essex County.  I took 50 snowfall measurements for the snow of 12/30.  I used 2 methods and they lead to the same14.2" total.  Newark came in with 13.9".

Method 1 - I used all 50 measurements and got an average.

Method 2 - I discarded the 5 highest and 5 lowest measurements from the 50, thus using 40 measurements and got an average.

 

Keep up the good work!

 

Michael Sautner

 

 

The WEATHER SHELTER

 

Powerful Nor'easter Pummels Metropolitan Area

 

By Chris Standal

 

The December 30, 2000 Snowstorm proved to be unusual in several respects. This was the single largest snowstorm for the New York Metropolitan area since early December 1960. That's 40 years! Secondly, the storm took a real bullseye at Northern New Jersey, New York City and Southern NY, SW New England. Snowfall amounts in excess of one foot were common and the storm arrived several hours earlier than forecast and with a vengeance. Snow in the NY area began around 4:30 a.m. and during the next ten hours fell at an average rate of 1.5" per hour. Several episodes of heavy snow occurred with visibility's reduced to less than 1/8 of a mile in snow and fog. The snow ended almost as abruptly as it began with only minor less than an inch wrap around in the Wayne area around Midnight. Temperatures throughout the event remained in the low 20's and winds averaged around 10 miles per hour. Only the next day did the stronger wind gusts arrive. In Wayne, the total snowfall averaged 15.5 inches with the range in the immediate N.J. Metropolitan area being 14 - 18". Northwest NJ and Morris County received the most snow averaging 20 - 29" depending upon specific location. It appears that these areas benefited from the being in the heavier bands longer and enhanced by orographic lifting.

 

This storm was in my mind a classic storm. Water equivalents averaged around 1.4 - 1.6" and the consistency of the snow was light and powdery. At least the snow proved to be quite easy to shovel, plow or blow. Given the fairly short duration of this storm, I feel the totals dumped were quite impressive. It has been years since the whole region was able to celebrate and not just those higher elevations. Equally unusual was the distinct Western cutoff of the snow. Locations only 10 - 20 miles west of Philadelphia received virtually nothing. Poor Stephen Pardrige! May be next time Stephen!

 

The Storm was born from the marriage of a deep upper low diving rapidly southeastward from the northern plains, which combined with residual moisture and energy over the southeastern states. While the models did a superb job of forecasting it's development, it wasn't until late Friday night that the moisture plume suddenly appeared off Hatteras and it was apparent something big was brewing. The new low spread it's moisture rapidly northward but the low itself took a number of hours before it passed by our region just to our east. Initially, the radar only showed the precipitation shield down to Delaware but to our delight the heavy bands kept moving inland off the Atlantic. Some locations even witnessed Thunder Snow, a true indicator of an intense system. The rain/sleet line never moved any further west than central Long Island.

 

 

   The WEATHER SHELTER

 

 

As I write this, our region may see a few smaller snow events, one on Friday, January 5 and another on Sunday January 7. After that, it looks like the January thaw will gradually assert itself. Doesn't this remind you of January 1996? Let's hope so!

 

Here is a photo of the snow and visibility during the height of the storm.


Please note that the van pictured is only 100 feet away.  Nick Stefano


                              

     Whiteout atop Mt. Creek Ski Resort

The WEATHER SHELTER

 

Courtesy National Weather Service in Mt. Holly, New Jersey


 

 

 

 

 

 

 


The WEATHER SHELTER

 

 

 

A Bold Forecast

By Roger Brickner

 

For most people morning after comes on Jan 1 after riotous living the night before. For snow freaks like us it comes on a day like this.

    A few thoughts for all of us who have been measuring the snow. Those of us who have been doing this for a long time know what parameters we have to measure by. NJ State Climatologist   Dave Robinson reminded us of the 6-hour standard that the weather service has set up in recent years.   Of course this was NOT their standard in the past, but if life is anything it is changing behavior over the years, hopefully for the better.   Nick Stefano gently reminded a non-NJWO weather enthusiast not to measure the newly fallen snow over the old snowcover.  Most of us in NJWO who want consistency use snowboards to eliminate such a problem. Then we follow Dave Robinson's advice.

    What is always a trip into the human mind and human behavior is to wait for the race for having THE MOST SNOW for anyone else in the area.  This happened bigtime this time round.  I have to say that NJWO *inadvertently produced 30" of snow for the ski area in Vernon, NJ.   There is NO WAY that a ski area is going to admit less snow that other nearby stations... coming many hours after the other reports, Vernon topped out at 30" RIGHT!!!

    We in the NJWO also have to be careful not to engage in the contest.

With human enthusiasm often comes human exaggeration.   Dr Robinson cautioned some of our snow measurers to be wary if our snow/liquid equivalent ratio is much higher than other areas, given a similar type of weather conditions. In our case this time he pointed out that temperatures did not vary greatly, therefore our ratios are unlikely to vary greatly.  Let me give an example from this storm of two extreme stations in the NY Metro area West.   Nick Stefano reported a 13.7 ratio for his 17" total.   NYC Central Park had a 13.0 ratio for its 12" total.   Temperatures were not very different between these two stations.  NYC max temp was 29, Wantage max temp was 24 degrees this is a very big departure from usual conditions, but it backs up Dr. Robinson’s reminding us of the small temperature differences over our region.

    Finally, I know how "local" we like to be when we have our contests, but one rule of contests is not to have the judge to be one of the participants.  This goes for ANYBODY, not just this storm's measurer.  May I suggest that we, in the future, use a disinterested party to measure the snow?  I would suggest that the NWS measurement in NYC's Central Park be the standard for prediction.  In the 1980's there was a very slipshod method of measuring in Central Park.   That has been corrected.  And if you still believe you KNOW the way snow is measured in Central Park, then calculate that into your prediction.  Having the snow measured by an independent source is the only professional way to go....

    My prediction for January... I am encouraged to continue on my earlier prediction of a cold and snowy first half of the month I would expect the first half to average 28-30 with about a foot of snow added to our snowcover coming from tomorrow's storm.  There will, however, also be some pretty hefty rainfall to lesson the groundcover during that period.   Second half should average 31-33 with 5-10" of snow.   Total precipitation for the month should be in excess of 5". I am looking for January to be the fifth snowiest since 1870.   The best analog year is 1923 and if it continues to hold it could produce an even colder month for February with also well above average snow but not much rainfall to lessen snowcover. I could see a very good amount of snow on the ground early in February.   Well, let's see what happens.

 

                                             Enjoy the snow, Roger Brickner

 

 

* Editors Footnote:  The recorded 30" from Mt. Creek Ski Resort actually came from a meteorologist friend of mine who was at the condos on the side of the mountain all day shoveling snow. He used a yard stick to measure. Measurements totaled 7 and were on the sidewalk Nick Stefano

 

 

Great Links

 

If you wish to keep track of how the weather unfolds in upcoming months, you are invited to visit the State Climate web site (http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim).  For precipitation totals you can surf through this site to view state long term averages and totals for individual months and years (http://climate.rutgers.edu/data/index.html) , county estimates for a variety of intervals (http://marfchp1.met.psu.edu/Maps) , long term monthly averages for selected stations (http://climate.rutgers.edu/norms/precip.html), totals for weekly and longer intervals at selected stations (http://climate.rutgers.edu/njclimatewatch.html), and station observations as frequently as every hour (http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet).

Sussex County, New Jersey:  http://www.sussexcountyweather.com

Mt. Holly National Weather Service:  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/phi/

Brookhaven National Weather Service: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/okx/

 

 

 

 

 

The WEATHER SHELTER

 

SNOWFALL and FROZEN PRECIPITATION MEASUREMENTS

By Nick Stefano

 

 

By far, snowfall is the most difficult of all types of precipitation to measure.  Drifting, compressing, melting etc. make this sometimes a real chore to get an accurate measurement.

 

Below are some "basic" rules of thumb to use when recording your snowfall measurements.

 

1-     Since snow does not usually accumulate on the level, one needs to take at least ten (ten) measurements in various locations in the designated snowfield area. Take your total new fallen snowfall and then divide by ten. (For our purposes, 5 measurements added together and divided by 5 will serve as an average, but 10 is the preferred number of measurements)

 

2-     Make sure that there is no previous snow on the ground.  If there is, DEDUCT that amount from the new total.

 (I recently received a call from an observer who complained that I posted a much smaller amount of snow from his township then actual. It was later learned that he did not deduct the amount of snow that was already on the ground, which decreased the total snow by 5 inches!)

 

3-     The use of a snowboard is preferred since the grass on the surface can actually "add" to your total from the little air pockets between the grass and the dirt surface. Snowboards are fine, however I just mentioned previous that we need to take at least 10 (ten) measurements. During some storms, a snowboard in one location is representative of the snowfall. First, start out with the board and then move out should conditions warrant.  This means that at least ten (10) snowboards must be placed around an area.  Something no one does.  I prefer the old fashion way. Over the ground or over the old snow using the strict guidelines mentioned above. (Again, for our purposes, one snowboard that is sheltered from the wind is a good start.  The snowboard should be 20"x20" rough surfaced white painted plywood.  The rough surface helps Snow adhere to it and the white coloration decreases solar effects).

 

4-     New NWS guidelines suggest taking measurements every 6 (six) hours (but no more then every six hours) and then clearing your snow area or snowboard.  Once the storm has ended, add the amounts from your six-hour measurements.

 (During heavy snow like the Storm of the Millennium, hourly measurements are needed to give NWS an idea as to how quickly snow is accumulating.)

 

5-  When melting snow for a liquid equivalent, you need to be using a rain gauge (with the inner tube removed) so you can collect the new snowfall inside.  Then, when it is time to melt the snow, bring the collector inside and first:

a-     Fill the inner tube, which usually is graduated in hundredths of an inch of liquid, with a known amount of warm to hot water.  Write down this amount on a piece of paper because you might have to add more hot water if this does not melt down the snow completely.

b-     Pour this known amount into the larger outer tube, which collected the snowfall.  Swish it around until the snow inside is completely melted.  If this does not melt the snow completely, add more hot water and swish that around as well.  Remember to ALWAYS write down the amount of hot water in hundredths of an inch poured into the larger collector.

c-  Once the snow is completely melted, slowly pour the liquid into the funnel, which fits on top of the smaller graduated inner tube.  Without overflowing the tube, pour some in and then write that number down.  Then pour the amount you just measured out.  Repeat the same procedure until all the melted snow liquid is empty.

Now, add your total and DEDUCT the amount from the total of the warm to hot water you added initially to melt the precipitation

 

An even better way would be to take a core sample of the snowfall that is representative of the current event. Capture a core sample by pushing your collector through the representative snow area down to the snowboard surface, ground surface or to the beginning of the existing snow on the ground prior to this event.  Turn the core tube right side up slowly but make sure you do not let any captured snowfall out.  You can do this by using a flat surface cardboard etc. and slipping it under the tube opening before you turn it right side up. Then proceed with the melting process.

 

 

6- To get your snow to liquid ratio, simply take your total snow measurement and divide it by the total liquid measured i.e.

 

Example:   17.3" of new snow

                 1.44" of melted liquid    = 12 to 1 ratio

 

 

One way to establish if an observer is measuring the snow and liquid equivalent correctly is to watch the snow to melt ratios reported.  The New Years' Eve storm was pretty equal over a larger area with respect to liquid equivalent ratios.  If most people are within a 14 to 1 ratio and another in the same area comes in with an 18 or 20 to 1 ratio, they are probably measuring the snow incorrectly.

 

As mentioned, snowfall measurement is not an exact science.  Keep up the excellent work.  This is a great public service from everyone.

 

Nick Stefano

 

 

 

 


* Please note that the mention of any kind of weather record in this publication is based solely from the period that official weather records commenced.  Obviously, no one knows what occurred hundreds or thousands of years ago.

 

 

 

 

 

The WEATHER SHELTER

 

Snow Forecast Winner Announced

 

During the December NJWO meeting, club members were asked to "predict" the snow amount of the "impending" event as recorded by Greg Petridis in Elizebeth, New Jersey.   Nick Stefano offered a free digital thermometer to the person who predicted the closest to the snowfall amount actually measured. 

 

Below are the forecasted amounts by members and visitors who were present.  The event did occur and Greg measured 15.7" in Elizebeth and is declared the winner!

 

Entries:

 Greg Petridis 16"            Kevin Orlafski 5.3"

 Christine Petridis 2"       Tom Shaw 6.8"

                                                 Art Petridis 13"              Dave Dabour 5.5"

                                                 Ken Fruhman 15"           Joe Knight 5"

 Pete Phillips 9.6"            Keith Mandra 8.9"

                                                 Albert Manganelli 13.1" Dwane Nofs 9.5"

                                                 Dick Keil 7.1"                 Bob Draper 5.4"

                                                 Cynthia Keil 0"               Dennis O'Keefe 8"

 Chris Standal 10.5"         Scott Gordon 13.2"

 Nick Stefano 16.1"          Roger Brickner 10.2"

 Greg Standal 4.8"            Kim Standal 9.8"

 

______

 

 

Sub Freezing Temperature Streak comes to a Halt

 

The unseasonably cold temperatures, which commenced in December and continued through early January, produced record cold.  Temperatures in portions of Northwestern New Jersey finally rose above the freezing mark on January 7, 2001 for the first time since December 18, 2000.  This made an incredible run of below freezing days of 20 consecutive days!  The longest run I could find from the weather archives is 23 consecutive days at High Point State Park during the period of Jan. 6-28, 1977.

 

The average temperature that month at High Point was only 14.0F! WOW!

 

 

The WEATHER SHELTER

 

 

 

NJWO NORTH JERSEY NOTES, BY

GREG PETRIDIS

 

December was much colder and slightly drier than normal.  Snowfall was much above normal.  The month started off cool, with highs in the 30s and lows in the low to mid 20s.  No precipitation fell from the first through third. 

        The fourth and fifth featured a brief warm-up, with highs in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s.  No precipitation fell, but the winds gusted to 33 MPH on the fifth.      

        The sixth through ninth featured cooler weather again, with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the mid to upper 20s.  Although not much precipitation fell, it was an active period, as the winds gusted to 31 MPH on the seventh.  A dusting of snow also fell on the eighth and again on the ninth.

        The tenth through twelfth featured another brief warm-up, with highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in the mid to upper 20s.  The winds gusted to an unbelievable 61-MPH, along with sustained winds of 33 MPH on the twelfth.  0.02" of rain also fell on the twelfth.

        The thirteenth through fifteenth were changeable, with highs around 40 and lows in the upper 20s.  1.18" of rain fell on the fourteenth, alongwith a trace of sleet and a glaze of freezing rain.

        The sixteenth and seventeenth actually turned very warm, with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the low to mid 30s.  0.29" of rain fell on the sixteenth, and an even 1" of rain fell on the seventeenth, along with a trace of snow.  Winds were again very strong on the seventeenth, with a gust to 53 and sustained winds to 25 MPH.

        The eighteenth through twentieth were changeable, with highs in the upper 30s and lows in the 20s.  The winds gusted to 42 MPH, along with sustained winds to 21 MPH on the nineteenth.  0.8" of snow fell on the twentieth.  The liquid equivalent was 0.04" and the winds gusted to 33 MPH.

        The rest of the month featured very cold temperatures and bitter cold wind chills.  Highs averaged around 30 and lows were around 20. 0.6" of snow fell on the 22nd, along with winds that gusted to 32 MPH and were sustained at 20 MPH. The winds gusted to 33 MPH on Christmas Day, and to 30 MPH on the 26th.  A 34 MPH wind gust, along with a sustained speed to 20, was observed on the 28th.  A major snowstorm moved in on the 30th and produced 15.7" in a short period of time, along with a 31 MPH wind gust.

On New Year's Eve, the winds gusted to 40 MPH, along with a sustained wind of 23 MPH, producing significant blowing snow.

 

November was cold and dry, but began warm, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s on the first to fourth. The fifth through eighth were slightly cooler, with highs near 60 and lows near 40.  The wind gusted to 30 MPH on the fifth. 

       

A major rainstorm broke a 21-day streak without measurable precipitation on the ninth and tenth, delivering a combined total of 1.54" and a peak wind gust of 31 MPH.  Highs were in the lower 60s and lows were around 50.

       

The eleventh through thirteenth continued the month's downward temperature spiral.  Highs were in the mid 50s and lows were in the low to mid 40s.

       

The fourteenth through seventeenth were unsettled.  Highs were in the low to mid 50s and lows were in the 30s.  0.28" of rain fell on the fourteenth and a trace fell on the sixteenth.  The winds gusted to 32 MPH on the fifteenth and 31-MPH on the seventeenth. 

       

The eighteenth and nineteenth were fair but chilly.  Highs were in the 40s and lows were around 30.  Our season's first freeze occurred on the nineteenth, with a low of 29.

       

The twentieth through 22nd were unsettled.  Highs were in the upper 30s and lows were in the mid to upper 20s.  0.06" of rain fell in a thunderstorm on the twentieth and a trace of snow, our season's first snow flurry, fell on the 21st.  The winds gusted to 32 MPH on the 22nd.

       

The 23rd through 25th were fair but cold.  Highs were in the upper 30s and lows were in the mid 20s.The 26th through 28th featured a warm-up, ushered in by a major rain event.  1.40" fell on the 26th.  Highs were in the lower 50s and lows were around 40. 

       

The month ended unsettled.  Highs were in the upper 40s and lows were in the mid 30s.  0.21" of rain fell on the 29th, and a trace of snow fell on the thirtieth.

 

 

 

The WEATHER SHELTER

 

NASA SELECTS FIRM TO BUILD NEXT GENERATION WEATHER INSTRUMENT

 

     A California firm has been selected by the NASA Office of Earth Sciences, Washington, DC, to implement a next-generation satellite package that could improve weather forecasting two-fold and help in the research of global climate change.

 

Gencorp Aerojet, based in Azusa, CA, was selected to build the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). The space-borne atmospheric instrument will measure microwave energy emitted and scattered by the atmosphere. ATMS will work alongside an infrared sounder instrument to produce daily global atmospheric temperature, humidity and pressure profiles. These profiles are essential to accurate weather forecasting and long-term climate research.

 

The contract is worth $206.6 million, with the majority of the work to be performed in Azusa, CA. NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, will be responsible for the oversight of the award.

 

"As we develop this advanced technology instrument, we move closer to improving our constellation of weather and climate observing satellites to the point where we will be able to improve forecasts from the current three-to-five day accuracy level of predictions on to seven-to-ten day predictions," said Dr. Ghassem Asrar, Associated Administrator for NASA's Earth Sciences Enterprise, Headquarters, Washington, DC. "These new technologies will provide an order of magnitude increase in our predictive capabilities, and our overall understanding of Earth's climate in the new millennium."

 

ATMS will replace instruments currently flying on polar-orbiting weather satellites. The new instrument is about one-third the size and weight of existing microwave-sounding systems currently on the Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites and the Aqua spacecraft.

 

This miniaturization technology is made possible by new advances in microwave electronics and will enable NASA to develop smaller and less-expensive spacecraft to fly ATMS and other instruments.

 

"We are investing in key technologies such as ATMS to meet our national strategic objectives in weather and climate research," Dr. Asrar added.

 

The first ATMS unit is planned to be flown on a project being developed by the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)

Preparatory Project "Bridge" mission, a tri-agency program involving NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Air Force. The NPOESS program merges civilian and military polar-orbiting satellite systems in a single, comprehensive mission.

 

The Bridge mission will ensure continuity of research quality data by "bridging" sounding data between the NASA Earth Observing System research missions and the NPOESS operational missions of the future.

 

The 1994 Presidential Decision Directive that established the NPOESS Integrated Program Office charged NASA with the responsibility for developing and implementing new cost-effective technologies. NOAA was charged with overall responsibility for the converged system, as well as satellite operations and interactions with the civil and international user communities. The U.S Air Force has the responsibility for major systems acquisitions, including launch support.  Additional information about the program is available on the Internet at:

 

http://npoess.noaa.gov

http://jointmission.gsfc.nasa.gov/

 

David E. Steitz

Headquarters, Washington, DC         December 20, 2000

(Phone: 202/358-1730)

 

Mark Hess

Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD

(Phone: 301/286-8982)

 

 

The WEATHER SHELTER

 

END OF MILLINIUM SNOWSTORM

By Roger Brickner

  

 As the true millennium drew to a close, a combination of events conspired to produce for the New York Metropolitan Area a snowstorm with dimensions that the premier city of the USA had not seen since January of 1996, nearly five years earlier.

    Let us look back a bit to see the lead up conditions both climatically and synoptically which preceded this snowstorm.  A day after the snowstorm the NWS reported that NATIONWIDE it had been the coldest NOV-DEC period in our 131 years of modern weather recording.   NATIONWIDE those two months had averaged 33.6 degrees Fahrenheit.  It broke by more than a half degree the previously coldest NOV-DEC record, which had held since 1898.  Early season displacement often triggers very interesting weather in the subsequent winter. 

    Before we delve into our own snowstorm, let's take a look at what happened in our area for the winter of 1898-99 just 102 years ago, when my immigrant grandfather had to shovel the snow from his tenement steps in Bushwick, Brooklyn so his pregnant wife could go out to do the shopping.  Women's Liberation was decades yet in the future!!!  After all it was Thanksgiving Day, that November 24th, and 3 inches of snow had fallen by

8am.It rained much of the rest of the day.  The butcher would be selling the turkeys cheaply, as this was his last chance to get rid of them on this holiday morning.

    November 24 was the start of a cold, snowy winter.  By the time the turkey was all eaten, most of the 3" of snow had washed away, but the first snow of the season, had fallen. In just 41 hours, on November 26th, a Sunday more snow would be flying and would not stop coming down 21 hours later on the morning of Monday, November 27th.  This time 10" of snow had fallen and this time it was not mixed with rain.  This storm, which produced very high amounts of snow in the area and in New England, was called the PORTLAND storm, because the ship by that name was swamped as it left Boston Harbor.  

    Finally, two days later with still over a half-foot of snow on the streets of NYC another 6 inches of snow and sleet pelted the area.  That November holds the record for amount of snow.... 19" and that record has not been seriously challenged since then. Incidentally, the month of November 1898 averaged 43.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

    Later that famous year in February 1899 the Great Arctic Outbreak and Blizzard affected New York.  15.5" of snow fell in this one storm and the temperatures fell below zero for three straight mornings just prior to the blizzard.  Ten more inches would fall at other times that month.

    Well, don't worry; I'm ready to talk about OUR SNOWSTORM.  Some other time, perhaps, we can talk about that winter of 1898-99 at a club meeting.    Even as early as late August, after a very cool summer, I began to search weather records to try to figure out what kind of autumn we might be going to have. I go by analogs, and 1922 was a good year which somewhat paralleled 2000.  Projecting it forward it looked as if we would have somewhat coolish autumn with no particularly warm spells.  By the time I got back from China and checked out what had happened since I left it looked good, so I projected into early winter.  It called for a cold, snowy period from mid December to mid January.  The Dec 30th storm fit the bill.   As I write this article on Jan 7th, I eagerly await another storm within the next ten days. By the time you read this we will know if the analog is still hanging in there. They don't last forever, you know.

    We have to look South, as so often is the case, when we are anticipating a good snowstorm in our area.  Several days' earlier twenty inches of snow had fallen in Amarillo in the panhandle of Texas.  It was a record snow for December for that plains location.   Further East and somewhat further South severe icing was taking place in NE Texas and Central Oklahoma, and much of the state of Arkansas.  It was a major calamity in a region of the country unused to unruly winter weather.  A strong upper air region of energy was SLoooWLY pushing the storm system to the East, but a northern branch of the jet was getting more and more out of sync with this system and weather watchers were getting nervous that any significant storm might not take place for the Northeast.

    This fear was NOT the case at the meeting of the NJWO.   If there were any fears they did a good job of covering them by making predictions of how much snow would fall on the upcoming Saturday, some 50 hours away.

    Back to the weather map...   with the southern system slowing down, concern became greater that a classic NOR'EASTER might not form.   In fact, to be technical, it did not.   What happened was that the clipper over the mid west, which piled impressive snows on places like Milwaukee and Chicago already well snowed upon in countless earlier snows, became the key actor in the unfolding story.  When it got to Eastern Ohio, its energy was being transferred to a coastal low which would form off the coasts of SE NJ and Delaware.. very far North of where classic NOR"EASTERS usually start.  Though the WEATHER CHANNEL did show by 11pm on Friday an incipient oceanfront trying to form off Cape Hatteras, the main action would take place several hundred miles to the North.  Within just a few hours a significantly deepening low was forming SE of Atlantic City.  By 4am snow was falling in Central Park AND IT MEANT BUSINESS.  There was no gradual increase in snow from light to moderate too heavy.  This stuff started out FAST.  By 5:30am there was already an inch of snow on my firescape outside my window.  After that it was S+ for many hours.  And this was in relatively unscathed Manhattan.  Incidentally, this was the first major snowstorm since I have lived in Manhattan.  It took four winters to finally get to this.   I deliberately drove down to Paramas and then NYC on Wednesday, Dec 27th to be here for it.   I did wish that I still owned my cottage that many weather enthusiasts will remember.  I would have had more than twice the amount of snow there than just 40 miles away in the city.

    I have attached a map of our area using the data from the NWS information that they put on the web the next day.   The epicenter in our area seems to be just east of the intersection of Sussex, Orange and Passaic counties touch.  Hewitt, at the southern end of Greenwood Lake in Passaic County at an elevation of 635' collected 25".  A friend of mine in Indian Park on the west side of Greenwood Lake at elevation 990' measured 26.5” He subsequently left for Florida the next day.  :>). 

    This particular storm was perfect for stations on the Eastern or even better East South Eastern slopes of the highland ridges.  Let me illustrate by discussing a ridge so oriented that I know well.   The Bellvale/Bearfort ridge, which is just to the west of Greenwood Lake, shows this well.  On the eastern side of the ridge, where the orographic uplifting enhanced the bands of heavy snow, Indian Park had 26.5" and Hewitt got 25.0", even though 355' lower caught the most snow.   Behind these two stations is Greenwood Lake Cooperative Station, which is behind the ridge to the west and received 20".  Warwick, also on the other side of the ridge received 21".

    We all know our own areas best so if we keep these rules of snow bands coming off the ocean in mind, we can figure out the configurations of snow depths in our areas.  The further inland one goes, however, the less delineating are these snowfalls. I always have been grateful that Bellvale Mtn. is the first 1200'+ ridge from the sea.  Of course the flip ide of this situation, is that it can turn to rain faster than a few ridges further west.

 

You can't win all the time.  :>)    I will allow others to tell of the details in their own areas.   In NYC there was more thunder and lightning and thunder snow than I have ever witnessed before.  It was impressive to see the snow burst after each clap of thunder and flash of lightning.

 

    I will not get any further into the discussion of snow measurement in this article.  My only thought is to realize that over the years snowboards were not used.  Also think about it... we want to know how much snow has fallen, the weight of snow being part of the total depth of the snow.  Why not???   When we measure snowcover, it's how much is actually on the ground.  You just got to be up when the snow changes to rain or when the snow begins to settle down from its greatest depth. Once again the human factor  :>)

                                       

 Submitted by Roger Brickner from

                                        Haverhill Corner, New Hampshire

 

 

 

 

 


Weather Education Online

By Dave Dabour

dabour@att.net

 

For those interested, Penn State has offered an introductory meteorology class taken over the Internet. It's a two-semester equivalent to the first class that meteorology majors attending PSU at University Park take, intended for folks at branch campuses. Special permission may be needed to take the class as an adult student. Fees are at the normal per-credit rate, so the class can end up costing little less than $1000 including books. The class is highly recommended for anyone who wants at least a start at formal meteorology education. The class number was Meteo 297, but I may have been renumbered. Find out about it on the Meteorology Department website at http://www.ems.psu.edu

 

 

The WEATHER SHELTER

 

Barnes & Noble Weather Class Available Online

 

Barnes & Noble are conducting a class on weather on the Internet.  The class is set to start soon.  Go to Barnes & Noble website for more information. While this may be more basic in nature, it looks interesting and should be supported. If popular, more may follow.

http://www.barnesandnobleuniversity.com/Classroom/Course/1,1438,25015_25608,00.html.  Of course they will encourage you to purchase books to make the class more interesting but it is not required.

 

Syllabus:

Lessons

 

1. What’s Up? A Tour of the Atmosphere

A guided tour of the troposphere and higher layers, with a stop at the ozone layer along the way.

 

 

2. Twists and Turns

A primer in why the atmosphere behaves the way it does.

 

 

3. All About Fronts

Blowing hot and cold: cold fronts, warm fronts, and the jet stream.

 

 

4. Weather Folklore

Yes, sometimes you can use a cricket as a thermometer.

 

 

5. Reading the Sky

Learn how to identify different cloud types -- cumulus, nimbus, alto, and cirrus -- and what they mean.

 

6. Nature’s Fury

Hurricanes, tornadoes and thunderstorms are the monsters of meteorology.

 

7. Why Weather Matters

Why the greenhouse effect may be too much of a good thing.

 

8. Forecasting the Future

Looking into the climate of the past for clues about the future.

 

The instructor is Eric Pinder.  Eric watches the weather from New Hampshire’s Mount Washington Observatory. He is the author of two books about weather: Tying Down the Wind and Life at the Top.

 

 

The WEATHER SHELTER

 

DIFAX TERMINATION

 

The family of services DIFAX service will be discontinued on April 30, 2001. However, the Internet version of DIFAX will continue for a short period of time. During this time period, DIFAX charts will be reviewed to see if they can be completely discontinued. Users will be notified of this effort. There is a possibility that DIFAX charts will be available on other sites. However, at this time no details are available. Notices pertaining to the termination of DIFAX will be posted on the NWS notice web page. The URL is: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oso/notices/notices.shtml.  If you have additional questions, please call the program manager, Julie Hayes on 301-713-0864 x 120.

 

 

 


Subscription Model Pages Available on the Internet

By Dave Dabour

dabour@att.net

 

 

There is a new site on the Internet offering access to a wide variety of computer models on a subscription basis. This site has been online for some time now, with an emphasis toward the commercial meteorologist. They have recently begun offering it to non-profit/hobbyist at an affordable price. Some of you may remember this type data that was once on the UNCC web server a couple of years ago, only its much more expansive now. The service is centered on model graphics.

 

They provide a complete set of model data that is generally unavailable anywhere else such as: AVN/MesoETA (4x day) Canadian GEM (48hrs) Canadian SEF (to 168 hrs 00Z, 72hrs 12Z) UKMET to 144hrs MRF Hires to 384 hours AFWC MM5 to 57 hrs (6Z/18Z) MRFX to 156 hrs AVN to 126 hours NGM RUC ECMWF NOGAPS GFDL Ensemble Hurricane Model Forecast Tracks (4x day LBAR, NHC90, GFDL, BAMD, BAM) and more... Virtually all of the products can be looped, and you can create forecast sounding for any location from most of the models. Pricing is structured differently for hobbyist/non-profit and for commercial users. Their goal is to create the most comprehensive site for model data, which is also extremely reliable. The site is http://www.wright-weather.com.  For more information email Mike Dross supercell@carolina.rr.com Wright-Weather, LLC

 

Several people have requested trial access. They have setup a temporary account for WX-TALK folks who might be interested. http://www.wright-weather.com login: demo password: wxtalk

 

 

NEXRAD RADAR’S ARE NOW ONLINE FOR FREE!

By Dave Dabour

Dabour@att.net

 

The day we've all been waiting for... the National Weather Service has placed online, REAL-TIME, local single site Doppler Radar Data. Here is the link for OKX: http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kokx.shtml. The link for the main page is http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/national.html. From there you can select any local radar. This is obviously a huge change in radar data.

 

Why the Change?

 

The NIDS (Nexrad Information Dissemination Service) contract between the National Weather Service and the radar data vendors ran out on January 1, 2001. In English, it means that anyone with a data feed from the National Weather Service (most Universities, National Weather Service, private firms) can offer single-site images on their websites without restrictions of any kind. The National Weather Service has wanted to put this online in real-time, and now they finally can. They have been able to test this internally, and it is ready to go.

 

Should I Cancel My Pay Service?

 

I wouldn't just yet. The question is... Can the NWS fund this project to make it reliable? Poor performance has been noted in the past on their http://weather.noaa.gov server during stormy times. And it was primarily serving text then! The graphical nature of the NEXRAD files, combined with looping will add a considerable load.

 

NWS radars will be updated for FREE in REAL-TIME (which is 5, 6, or 10 minutes depending on radar mode, this is a NEXRAD hardware limitation). There are several products available: Base Reflectivity

(with loop), Composite (with loop), 1-Hr Rain, and Storm Total Rain. If you desire severe weather products like storm tracking, etc., you will still have to turn to the Private Vendors.

 

Other Radar News

 

The Weather Channel is now offering radar mosaics in real time, without delay! Go have a look at: http://www.weather.com .  Accu-Weather has also been offering free mosaics as well, updated in real-time, since this past summer. Check them out at: http://www.accuweather.com.  Their single-site radar is not free, however, and it is delayed. Also Intellicast continues to offer server storm city radar for several large cities across the country.  The link for NYC is: http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Northeast/NewYork/NewYorkCity/MetroStormWatch/

 

 

 

The WEATHER SHELTER

 

 

MONTHLY SUMMARY  - DECEMBER, 2000

KING OF PRUSSIA, PA.

 

December in the Philadelphia area was significantly colder than in recent years with frequently windy conditions. Temperatures averaged the second coldest on record (28.7 degrees). There were 30 days with lows of 32 or below & 14 at 20 or below. Nine days yielded readings of 40 or higher. After starting off uneventful the month entered a stormy period beginning on the 10th & continuing into the new year, highlighted by an outbreak of thunderstorms with high winds & flooding on the 17th and a major coastal snowstorm on the 30th. On Christmas day a partial solar eclipse occurred. Precipitation was above normal (4.85”). Snow & ice totalled 12.3”.

Fair, blustery & moderately cold conditions greeted the first two days.  On the 3rd, low pressure along the southeast coast caused significant snowfall from NE North Carolina into SE Virginia while only fringe cirrus clouds affected the local area with a cold high of 34. Overnight, a record low of 15 degrees was recorded & frost occurred. The 4th was sunny, breezy & pleasant with a low in the teens once again.

The passage of a cold front on the 5th created increasingly windy conditions along with falling temperatures during the afternoon & evening. On the 7th, pre-dawn snow flurries were experienced in the Philadelphia region but not in King of Prussia. During the day, mostly sunny skies & strong, gusty WNW winds (15-35mph) prevailed. A morning low of 24 degrees tied the record for the date. On the 8th, an Alberta clipper caused snow showers & flurries all around the Philadelphia area overnight late AM. An inch or less of snow originally forecast failed to materialize as a dry slot set up over the region. The 9th was exceptionally nice despite cold temperatures. Sunshine mostly prevailed through patches of cirrus clouds & light breezes provided a break from low wind chill values.

On the 10th, the first in a series of storm systems caused intermittent light, wet snow followed by light rain during the afternoon into early evening. Measurable accumulation did not occur. On the 11th, fog affected the area overnight & through the morning. Late in the day, increasingly windy conditions (SSW) developed. Drizzle, some light rain & fog occurred late in the evening into the early morning hours ahead of a strong cold front advancing from the west. High winds (30-55mph) accompanied the front’s passage prior to daybreak-late morning on the 12th, very slowly subsiding as the day progressed. Thousands of power outages were reported in the Philadelphia region as the strong winds felled trees & branches onto power lines. Locally, numerous dead branches & twigs littered the ground. The front was part of a powerful storm that produced heavy snow in the upper Midwest states. Temperatures plummeted from a mild high of 50 into the upper 20s during the evening to a low of 18 on the morning of the 13th.

A storm moving rapidly NE from Texas & the development of secondary low pressure along the coast combined to produce moderate-heavy freezing rain then rain beginning late in the evening on the 13th through daybreak on the 14th. At the storms onset, roadways became glazed & dangerous. Significant ice buildup occurred on trees but the changeover came in time to prevent damage & power outages. Precipitation in King Of Prussia totaled 1.13” with 0.3” of ice.

On the 16th & 17th, a sprawling area of intense low pressure moving NE through the mid Atlantic & northeast states generated a bizarre, exciting sequence of weather conditions in the Philadelphia area, climaxed by a prolonged period of summer-like thunderstorms, high winds & flooding on the 17th. A flash flood watch & subsequent warnings were issued as 2-3.25 inches of rain overflowed sections of several creeks & rivers in SE Pennsylvania. Locally, 2.83” of rain was measured. Severe thunderstorm warnings & a tornado watch were also issued, the first ever in the month of December. Several new high temperature records were established in the region, including King Of Prussia(63).

 

As the first phase of the storm arrived on the 16th, periods of rain occurred & light fog developed. Temperatures slowly rose through the day from the 30s to the low 50s before midnight. Fog became dense early in the evening, significantly reducing visibility. After midnight a strong warm front moved through; dense fog dissipated abrubtly while ESE winds shifted to the SSE, becoming increasingly gusty. Within a 3-hour period, the mercury surged an incredible 10 degrees from 53 at midnight to 63 by 3:00am(EST), coupled with tropical-like humidity. From approximately 3:15am(EST) into early afternoon, an intermittent barrage of heavy, gusty thunderstorms & showers occurred, accompanied by frequent, vivid lightning with booming thunder, strong wind gusts ranging from 30-50mph & torrential downpours. In King Of Prussia, the strongest thunderstorms were experienced between 3:30-4:00am & 6:00-6:30am. Lightning & thunder was observed for 8 consecutive hours from 3:00-11:00am. During the afternoon, winds shifted to the west, rain ended & it turned significantly cooler. Clouds broke up and sunshine prevailed for a brief time before cloudcover returned. A reinforcing cold front caused sprinkles & some light rain from late afternoon into early evening. WNW winds became strong & gusty (25-40mph) and temperatures plummeted through the 30s into the 20s during the night. It was truly a memorable storm event.

 

The 18th was sunny& cold with continued blustery conditions. An afternoon high of 31 was 32 degrees colder than it had been 32-36 hours earlier. On the 19th into the 20th, an advancing cold front from the west & a developing coastal low produced wind driven snow during the evening & overnight hours. It was the first measurable snowfall of the winter season, accumulating 2.6” locally. Sunshine, gusty winds & cold temperatures prevailed during the day on the 20th & on the 21st.

 

On the 22nd, light-occasionally-heavier snowfall occurred from daybreak until early afternoon ahead of a strong cold front, leaving a 1.2” accumulation. During the afternoon strong WNW winds gusted near 40mph, causing minor blowing & drifting & cloudcover gave way to a clear sky. Temperatures plummeted steadily, dropping into the low teens by late evening with wind chills well below zero. Windy & cold conditions continued on the 23rd with a high in the upper 20s. On Christmas Eve, another strong cold front moved through with morning cloudiness giving way to sunshine in the afternoon.

 

The 25th(Christmas) & the 26th featured classic winter conditions: clear, sapphire blue skies, gusty WNW winds (25-35mph) with below zero wind chills, afternoon highs in the mid 20s & a general 1-2 inch snowcover. Christmas day was made extra special with the occurrence of a partial solar eclipse (60%) which peaked at 12:47pm(EST). A noticeable dimming of the sky was observed.

On the 30th, the first major snowstorm of the winter blanketed King Of Prussia with 8.2” as a very strong Alberta clipper redeveloped into intense low pressure near the Delmarva Penninsula & moved NE along the coast. Snowfall amounts varied dramatically, ranging from 2 or more feet in northern New Jersey to around an inch on the Lancaster/Chester county border in Pennsylvania. Most of the precipitation occurred here during the morning hours (4:45-10:00am EST). It was remarkable how sharp the cutoff line was on the storms western edge. While snow fell heavily at this location, little or nothing was occurring as close as 15-20 miles to the west. During the afternoon into early evening, backlash snowfall was experienced along with increasingly gusty WNW winds that caused blowing & drifting. Sunny skies prevailed on New Years Eve with the temperature near freezing & WNW winds gusting almost 40mph.

 

 

 

Observer: Michael Cerio

Station: King Of Prussia, Pa.

County: Montgomery

Elevation: 185’